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The word "need" is preeminent in discussions about water. During the 2001-2002 drought individuals came to OWASA public meetings asking the utility to find other sources of water to meet customer needs. Recently, several Orange County Advisory Boards came together to develop goals for natural resources as part of the Comprehensive Plan revision process. Some initially worded the goal regarding water resources as "water supply which meets the needs of the population." The North Carolina Division of Water Resources defines local water supply plans as an "assessment of a water system's current and future water needs and the ability to meet those needs." In this time of drought, a recent newspaper headline was "Raleigh looks at rates, restrictions, new sources to meet needs." We frequently hear about the region's population projections. Within the next 30 years our current population of 1.5 million is expected to increase to 2.5 million. Is it our duty to find water for this future anticipated growth? Implicit in growth projections is the idea that we have to find a way to meet the anticipated water needs. We do talk about sustainability. By the end of a joint advisory boards' meeting on developing goals for Orange County's comprehensive plan, the water goal was rephrased to: "sustainable quality and quantity of ground and surface water resources." I am not sure we truly understand what sustainability means when we continue to cite numbers for an expected population increase which is based on previous growth rates. Where is the assessment of how many people can be reasonably accommodated with our water resources? I think we need to explicitly acknowledge carrying capacity as the keystone to sustainable water resources. We need to start with this premise rather than the premise of accommodating future needs. What are the water resource limitations? Carrying capacity is the supportable population of an organism, in our case humans, given the food, habitat, water and other necessities available within an ecosystem. Analyzing carrying capacity vis-â-vis water is not simple. I recently came across an equation developed by Paul Ehrlich which helps outline how our carrying capacity can be altered. The equation is as follows: I = P * A * T, where I is the impact on the environment resulting from consumption, P is the population number, A is the consumption per capita and T is the technology factor. Local water utilities such as the Town of Hillsborough and OWASA look at average demand that is A, in the above equation. Estimates of future water demands are often based on current consumption patterns. The average household now uses approximately 6,000 gallons per month. The current OWASA rate structure attempts to decrease the much higher use in the summer and by customers who greatly exceed this average. Thus, A, consumption, can be affected by financial incentives. T, the technology factor, also affects how much water is used. There are numerous examples. OWASA recently announced that customers can purchase reclaimed water that is treated wastewater, to use for irrigation rather than having to irrigate with potable water. Retrofitting older homes with low flush toilets and installing waterless urinals reduce per capita water use. These two factors, per capital consumption and technology, create some uncertainty in projecting future demand using data on current consumption patterns and technology. What does this mean for assessing how many people we can accommodate? Some would argue that our limited knowledge of the future relationship between water resources and population demands should lead us to using a precautionary principle. I agree. What does this imply? First of all, Orange County should continue to look to its water resources as those available within our local community. This allows for local control over its management. I would not want to see us become enmeshed in "water wars" and ensuing legal battles as do other states and countries. Secondly, I would like us to take account of the carrying capacity of the non-municipal areas. How many more houses with wells can we accommodate with our groundwater resources in the non-municipal areas? Fortunately, this question is being considered in the Orange County Comprehensive Plan revision. Lastly, I would like our water supply plans to account for serious droughts, as we are now experiencing. In the past, projected future water supplies have often been based on yields assuming droughts that occur every 30 years. We are now in a 100-year drought. What used to be a drought occurring only once in 100 years might occur more frequently in the future. We may have to accept having a ceiling on how many people can ultimately live here. I want to make sure that those who live and do business here do not have excessive worries about water. Bernadette Pelissier is a retired social scientist who lives in Orange County and serves on several community boards. Readers can contact her at bpelissier@juno.com or c/o The Chapel Hill Herald, 106 Mallette St., Chapel Hill, NC 27516. Author: BERNADETTE PELISSIER Columnist Copyright, 2007, The Durham Herald Company |
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